Footy 04 Apr 2005 12:54 pm
Footy tipping - round 2
Continuing the study I started on the first round, let’s see how our three strategies did this week.
The “ladder” strategy was the worst performer, with just four correct guesses (contrasting with six on the first week); no more than could be expected by blind luck. In retrospect, I believe this makes sense, and I think this poor performance may continue for a few weeks. The reason is that, after just one round (or even a few), the ladder doesn’t really say much about the relative strengths of the teams; teams will jump up and down several positions at a time until they “settle” somewhat. For the first round, the ladder represented the achievements of a whole season, which made it more representative. A better strategy would probably be a “sliding ladder”, taking into account the last X rounds (across seasons if necessary) to create an hypothetical ladder.
On the other hand, the “money” strategy did very well, with six correct guesses; the “home” strategy had five, same as last week. On the cumulative results, this puts “money” ahead on the number of correct guesses, but not on the financial results, where the “home” strategy takes the top due to its consistently good results so far (remember, no money is actually changing hands).
In short, these are the results:
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More results next week.
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